When a Manhattan jury convicted Donald Trump of all 34 felony counts yesterday in the hush money case, it was of course a history-making moment involving a former President of the United States.
And yet he also may be the next President of the United States.
There is nothing to stop Trump from running–and winning–even if he’s in jail.
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Another way to look at it is that President Biden may still fail to beat a man convicted of criminal charges–which explains why leading Democrats are privately freaking out, as Politico put it, at the prospect that their leader can’t win another term.
Trump looked genuinely upset at the conviction when he spoke to reporters outside the courthouse, calling the verdict a disgrace, repeating his attacks on Judge Juan Merchan and saying the real test would come in November.
Trump’s base may be largely unmovable at this point. He has constantly hammered home that this case, centered on the $130,000 that Michael Cohen paid Stormy Daniels, and the other three indictments, stem from the Biden administration’s weaponization of the law enforcement system.
The vast majority will stand by their man, even though it took the jury only 11 hours to convict the ex-president on every count.
The judge will sentence Trump on July 11, just days before the Republican convention that will nominate him for a third time.
The Biden campaign rushed out a statement saying “no one is above the law.
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“Donald Trump has always mistakenly believed he would never face consequences for breaking the law for his own personal gain. But today’s verdict does not change the fact that the American people face a simple reality. There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box. Convicted felon or not, Trump will be the Republican nominee for president.”
On that, both sides agree.
There was some pretrial polling suggesting that nearly a third of Republicans would be less likely to support Trump if he was found guilty of criminal charges. But now that it’s happened, will that still be true?
Given the tightness of the race in the battleground states, even if 2 percent of Republicans change their minds about Trump, it could affect the outcome.
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And yet a majority of Democrats seem to have concluded that Biden, at 81, doesn’t have the mental acuity or stamina to serve another four years.
Trump’s conviction doesn’t do anything to ease such Democratic liabilities as inflation and the porous border.
Despite eight hours of closing arguments and confusing and overlapping jury instructions by Merchan, the jurors chose to believe the rather thin case assembled by D.A. Alvin Bragg.
The judge said they could not convict the defendant based on Michael Cohen’s testimony unless they could find corroborating evidence. The jurors obviously concluded that the testimony of such witnesses as David Pecker and Hope Hicks, along with a stack of emails, texts and banking records, provided such corroboration. The Trump defense never took on the paper trail – including the 11 reimbursement checks signed by the president – because they could not offer an alternative version of events.
So the country remains as divided as ever. This was either the most blatantly political persecution in American history or an unprecedented attempt at holding a former leader accountable.
Trump will obviously appeal, and history will judge.
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