Over the last two months, I have spent more time in Pennsylvania than any other state for the obvious reason that the outcome there will very likely determine whether our next president will be Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
One increasingly clear phenomenon I have slowly seen, and it’s backed up by some polling, is that Gen Z voters who are between the ages of 18 and 27 are far more open to supporting Trump than their Millennial elders, who are mainly in their 30s.
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A recent poll from Harvard has Harris leading Trump 61 percent to 30 percent among Millennials, but an NBC News poll shows that with voters 18-29, that lead shrinks to 16 points at 50 to 34.
It tracks with what I have been seeing on the ground.
At a Trump rally in Harrisburg back in August, I met young, blue-collar Gen Zers who believed Trump would provide more opportunity, a JD Vance event in Hershey was overflowing with twenty somethings, and Saturday in Butler, I met dozens of first-time voters planning to pull the red lever.
It came into clear focus later on Saturday night at Jack Jolly’s Holiday Bar in downtown Butler, a town which, unlike many of the hollowed out Ohio cities I’ve seen that are more rust than belt, is actually quite charming and seems to be thriving.
Jack Jolly’s is one of those cocktail lounges where they infuse everything or put smoke in the glass, and the first people I met there were a trio in their late 30s; one married couple and their guy friend.
All were childhood buds from Butler who had moved away after college and recently returned to purchase homes in this lovely hillside hamlet. They were no fans of Trump, and they also weren’t overly interested in politics.
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At one point, I asked them if the emerging well-to-do segment of the population and the longer-standing middle and lower classes mingled well. They looked at me quizzically and I said, “I mean, your kids must go to school together, right?”
“Oh, we don’t have kids,” the single guy told me, though the woman is a teacher.
And they are a type of voter I have seen elsewhere, in San Francisco and Chicago — good jobs, few responsibilities, and not terribly ill at ease with the state of their lives, the country, or the world.
About the time they took off, another trio took their place, this time, three dudes, younger, mid to late twenties. Two were Trump fans, and the other, a history teacher, supports Harris, but also said, “I don’t think Trump is a threat to democracy.”
What followed was a robust conversation about politics, America, and life. They were well-informed, avid social media users, and importantly, they all seemed to have a grasp on the best arguments of the other side.
Earlier in the day, I had spoken to Johnny and Rocky at the Trump rally, who were also either Gen Z or close. They are buddies, but I was surprised when Johnny said, “Rocky and I watched the VP debate together.”
When I was 27, we did a lot of things, but get together to watch a vice presidential debate was not among them. Then again, in the 1990s, we thought a bright future was inevitable. Unlike Gen X, Gen Z is very well aware that it isn’t.
Part of the reason that I was slow to pick up on the reddening of Gen Z, especially, but not only, Gen Z men, is that I couldn’t really explain it, and I still struggle to.
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Are they less connected to and susceptible to the neoliberal pablum of the leftist media and entertainment industry? Is it because they grew up, in part, under a Trump presidency and so do not find it abhorrent or abnormal? Is it counter-cultural?
Whatever is driving these young voters into the arms of the GOP, it will have profound implications not just on this election, but going forward for decades. Ten years from now, they will start accumulating the power that Millennials have today.
And unlike Millennials, who seem quietly resigned to a country and society that isn’t going to get any better, there seems to be flickering hope among our youngest voters, as if they dare to dream.
And we should all have such hope, because maybe, just maybe, the kids are alright.
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